Why Middle East wants Russian Hegemony? Middle Eastern Nations will remain ally of Russia

Russia’s current situation and relations with Middle-East :

• Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in late February, the prevailing view in Washington was that Russian President Vladimir Putin had become a master of the geopolitical game. He had a well-armed and capable war machine and had managed to extend Moscow’s influence well beyond Russia’s near abroad into Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East.
• Moscow’s war on Ukraine has certainly revealed Russia to be weak, which will inevitably undermine Putin’s global influence. Yet, not only does Putin remain a capable player in the Middle East, but he also has willing partners there.

Middle-East Disoriented from USA:

• Washington’s friends in the Middle East undoubtedly want U.S. security guarantees and lots of weaponry.
• Yet the combination of two decades of failure in the region, the clear U.S. desire to de-emphasize the region in favor of Asia, and ongoing U.S. domestic political dysfunction raise questions in the region about Washington’s commitment to regional stability and their security.
• As evidence, they cite a long litany of U.S. actions – The 2003 invasion of Iraq to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal to former U.S. President Donald Trump’s failure to respond to Iranian attacks on Saudi Arabia in 2019. At this backdrop, none of the regional actors, especially in the Gulf, are willing to give up their hedges with Russia.

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Middle-East Volunteers fighting for Russia;

• Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the green light in March for up to 16,000 volunteers from the Middle East to be deployed alongside Russian-backed rebels to fight in Ukraine, doubling down the invasion.
• The move, just over two weeks since Putin ordered the invasion, allowed Russia to deploy battle-hardened mercenaries from conflicts such as Syria without risking additional Russian military casualties.

Middle-East’s interests with Russia – Oil, Gun & Money

• There are three main areas in which ties have developed between Russia and the Middle East recently

Security

• For countries like Jordan and Israel, Russia’s hold over Syria plays a role. Israel depends on Russian cooperation to be able to strike at the proxies of its regional enemy Iran in Syria.
• Russia has also backed factions fighting in Libya for a warlord sponsored by the UAE. It also has a relationship with Iran, with whom it must work in Syria; Iran also backs the Assad government there.

Trade

• Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon and Egypt all import wheat from Ukraine and Russia and any shortage will cause them big problems and price rises. The UAE also acts as a major financial hub for Russians and will be forced to evaluate banking sanctions.

Energy

• In 2016, Russia joined an organization called OPEC+, which expanded the original Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries and added more members. In OPEC+, Russia collaborates with major players like Saudi Arabia to regulate oil supply, and thereby oil prices.

Saudi Arabia

• At this moment, the Saudis have a far greater confluence of interests with the Russians on the price of oil than they do with the United States on regional security. That is because the Saudis have lost confidence that the United States is committed to regional security and stability.
• Moreover, When In 2018, Saudi Arabian leadership was under fire for the gruesome murder of Saudi dissident Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul, Russia came in support of Saudi. Just two months later, at the G20 mm in Argentina, Russian President Vladimir Putin launched a media storm by greeting the Increasingly isolated Saudl Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman with a peculiarly casual high-five and a huge smile.

Turkey

• Moscow has long resisted a Turkish offensive in Syria, because Turkey’s territorial control in the north would Jeopardize Putin’s vision of victory in Syrio as a unified country under Assad’s leadership. Yet Putin may be willing to countenance a limited and temporary Turkish invasion, because it would complicate the U.S. mission in Syria and exacerbate strains in NATO over Ankara’s relationship with Moscow.

Egypt

• Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi also refuses to isolate Moscow. Between 2017 and 2021, Russia was Egypt’s largest supplier of weapons followed by France and Italy.
• Egypt and Russia, alongside the United Arab Emirates, have also collaborated in Libya, where Moscow’s private army, the Wagner Group, has fought alongside Gen. Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army.

Iran

• Amid intensifying diplomatic isolation, Iran has increasingly found common around with Russia, including a shared adversary in Washington. Tehran, severed from the global banking system by Western sanctions, wants to show it has alternatives.
• Back in July before President Biden’s visit to Saudi & Israel, White house reported that Iran was preparing to send armed drones to Russia for use against Ukraine.

Israel

• When it comes to Israel, the differences between interim Prime Minister Yair Lapid and his predecessor, Naftall Bennett, concerning criticism of Russia for invading Ukraine are a matter of degree. The Israelis continue to need the Russians in Syria to conduct their shadow war against Iran. This effort is likely to become more challenging as Moscow and Tehran draw closer.

The Middle East does not look all that different from the way it did before! Russia’s tanks began to roll on Feb. 24. This underscores not so much U.S. weakness but rather the fact that Moscow shares a discrete set of common objectives with almost all of Washington’s partners in the region, from high energy prices to a more multipolar world order.